As of 15:00 UTC on 15 October 2024, the present exchange rate of Bitcoin against euro (btc to eur) was illustrated in a divergent way on large exchanges. The present spot price of BTC/EUR on Coinbase is 28,450 euros, with a trading volume of 120 million euros in the last 24 hours. The spread (difference between the selling and buying price) is 0.03%, while the price of the Binance BTC/EUR trading pair is a bit lower (28,420 euros), with the average daily liquidity depth of 450 million euros. The value of open orders (total of top five tiers) is over 8,000 BTC, leaving a probability of less than 0.1% slippage for high-frequency traders to fill one million-euro order. Conversely, the BTC/EUR quote on the decentralized exchange Uniswap has widened to 0.5% due to the smaller size of the liquidity pool (approximately 1,200 BTC), and the median on-chain confirmation time is 8 minutes (the Ethereum network congestion window can go up to 15 minutes).
Macroeconomic fluctuations directly affect the exchange rate of btc to eur. Following the interest rate hike of 25 basis points by the European Central Bank in September 2024, the euro lost value by 1.8% against the US dollar, thereby increasing the theoretical value of Bitcoin expressed in euros by 2.3% (observed increase in market was 1.5% due to lags in markets). According to TradingView data, the 30-day annualized volatility of BTC/EUR is 68%, significantly higher than the 54% of BTC/USD, led mainly by the divergences in inflation rates across the Eurozone – i.e., Germany’s CPI rose 3.2% year-on-year in October (above the EU average of 2.7%). Get local investors to shift 4.5% of their asset base into Bitcoin (according to a Deutsche Bank survey). At the highest volatility point of the prices (every 8 hours, settled), the funding rate on BitMEX’s BTC/EUR perpetual derivative contract in the derivatives market stands at 0.05%. Arbitrageurs can then enjoy a yearly return of 12% to 15% utilizing the hedging strategy that includes futures-spot.
The trading platform’s features give rise to the price divergences. Kraken, both an EU compliance license holder (approved by the Dutch central bank) and a fiat express service provider, manages a 230 million euro average daily trading volume for its BTC/EUR pair. However, with the fairly high bank transfer fees (0.15% for SEPA euro deposits with a maximum of 5 euros), this has raised the actual purchase price by around 0.2%. In contrast, Bitstamp is regulated by the Luxembourg Financial Supervisory Authority and offers instant euro withdrawals (median processing time, 10 minutes), though its BTC/EUR rate is -0.1% to +0.3% away from market average, largely due to the delay in liquidity adjustment introduced by the 95% of cold storage holdings. In FTX’s 2024 bankruptcy restructuring, its European users’ exchange error rate for euro to BTC withdrawals was as high as ±2.7% caused by the liquidity depletion brought about by asset-freeze, and this points towards the importance of an ecologically compliant platform.
Market sentiment has the closest relation with on-chain metrics. Glassnode monitoring indicates the number of European addresses with BTC has surpassed 8.7 million (18% of the total worldwide), of which the average German address has an age of 3.2 years (more than the global average of 2.5 years). As soon as the btc to eur exchange rate crossed the psychological level of 30,000 euros, the ratio of profitable addresses in the chain shot up from 58% to 72%, which created short-term selling pressure (for instance, when the price reached 29,800 euros in May 2024, the on-chain transfer volume shot up by 42% to 350,000 BTC in 24 hours). In addition, European institutions indirectly own Bitcoin via ETNs (such as VanEck’s BTCV), and their size of management will increase to 4.7 billion euros in 2024 (with an annual growth rate of 89%), leading to a 12% decrease in spot liquidity on the exchanges and a 5 percentage point increase in price volatility.
Real-time tracking tools and forecasting models are used as references. CoinGecko’s btc to eur exchange rate index aggregates the data from 21 exchanges and calculates the weighted average price as 28,430 euros (standard deviation ±85 euros) with a 99.7% accuracy. The machine learning platform Santiment also predicted the range of the price movement for the next week as between 27,800 and 29,500 euros and had a 38% probability of breaking the previous high, using social media sentiment (the volume of the conversation in the German-speaking area increased by 30%) and on-chain whale activity (transactions over 1,000 BTC per transaction have increased in frequency, the average being 7 times a day). For everyday users, Telegram bots such as CoinStats offer real-time alerting functionality (triggering a notice if the price drifts away from the set boundary by 0.5%), with over 2 million followers and an average daily request volume for queries of 140 million.